For many retirees, living solely on Social Security benefits is a challenging reality. These seniors rely heavily on the program’s annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) to keep pace with rising living expenses. As we move through the year, many are looking ahead to what the 2026 COLA will look like.
While it’s still too early for an official announcement, the Social Security Administration (SSA) bases COLAs on third-quarter data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Since we’re not yet into the full data collection period for July, August, and September, the precise figure isn’t available. However, we can look to recent inflation data for clues.
Social Security’s 2026 COLA Projection Shows Promise
For many seniors, the COLA raise in 2025 was a modest 2.5%. But the good news is that projections for 2026 are more optimistic. The Senior Citizens League, a prominent advocacy group, recently increased its 2026 COLA forecast to 2.7%, a slight increase from previous projections.
This comes after the Senior Citizens League gradually raised its expectations for 2026, starting with a 2.2% estimate in March, moving up to 2.3% in April, and most recently landing at 2.7%. A month ago, projections had suggested a 2.6% raise. If the trend continues, retirees may see a COLA closer to 3%.
Why a Modest COLA Could Be Ideal
While many hope for the largest COLA possible, a modest raise in the upper 2% range might be more favorable for seniors in the long run. It signals that inflation is rising but not at an extreme level.
If the 2026 COLA lands at 2.7%, it would indicate that inflation in the latter half of 2025 was moderate, and that the 2025 COLA held up well.
An excessive COLA could be a sign of troubling inflation spikes, and rising costs could hurt more than help in the future. While some fear that upcoming tariffs might push inflation higher, it’s better for consumers, including seniors, if prices remain stable.
What’s Next?
The official COLA announcement is expected to come in October, and that’s when Social Security recipients should pay attention to the finalized numbers. In the meantime, keeping an eye on inflation trends can help gauge what to expect.
Bonus Tip for Social Security Recipients
Many retirees may be unaware of the $23,760 Social Security bonus that can significantly boost their retirement income. By learning a few key “Social Security secrets,” you could receive more benefits and retire with greater financial confidence.
