Forecasting the Remaining 2025 Season for Texas A&M Using ESPN FPI

Forecasting the Remaining 2025 Season for Texas A&M Using ESPN FPI

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COLLEGE STATION, Texas — After Saturday’s 44-22 victory over Utah State, the future outlook for Texas A&M football remains uncertain. While the Aggies secured a win, concerns about consistency on both sides of the ball persist, especially on defense.

Starting quarterback Marcel Reed has continued to show growth in the pocket, bolstered by the offseason acquisitions of transfer wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. However, Reed’s performance wasn’t flawless, with several misthrows scattered throughout the game.

On a positive note, Reed’s ability to make plays with his legs, rushing for 66 yards and a touchdown, offers hope moving forward. His mobility will be key to keeping defenses on edge and extending plays.

On the defensive side, senior edge Cashius Howell provided a bright spot, recording three consecutive sacks—an accomplishment not seen since 2015. However, the secondary remains a concern, with star cornerback Will Lee III struggling in coverage, allowing three receptions on five targets.

This will need to improve if the Aggies have aspirations of making a serious College Football Playoff run.

With the Aggies heading to South Bend for a highly anticipated rematch against Notre Dame this Saturday, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Texas A&M enters the game needing a statement win after falling to the Fighting Irish in last season’s opener.

Both teams are looking to bounce back, with Notre Dame coming off a loss to Miami and Texas A&M aiming to prove it belongs in postseason discussions.

Upcoming Matchups & Predictions

Looking ahead to the remainder of the season, Texas A&M’s chances of winning several of their upcoming games remain uncertain, as reflected by ESPN’s FPI predictor:

Sept. 13: Texas A&M (28.8%) at Notre Dame (71.2%)

Sept. 27: Texas A&M (57.6%) vs. Auburn (42.4%)

Oct. 4: Texas A&M (79.7%) vs. Mississippi State (20.3%)

Oct. 11: Texas A&M (63.4%) vs. Florida (36.6%)

Oct. 18: Texas A&M (44.6%) at Arkansas (55.4%)

Oct. 25: Texas A&M (44.3%) at LSU (55.7%)

Nov. 8: Texas A&M (41.5%) at Missouri (58.5%)

Nov. 15: Texas A&M (56.9%) vs. South Carolina (43.1%)

Nov. 22: Texas A&M (99.0%) vs. Samford (1.0%)

Nov. 28: Texas A&M (21.2%) vs. Texas (78.8%)

Heading into Week 3, Texas A&M was initially predicted to finish the 2025 season with a 9-3 record. However, after the first two games, projections have dropped, with the Aggies now expected to end the regular season 7-5.

This decline is likely due to stronger-than-expected performances from Missouri and Arkansas, coupled with defensive struggles, particularly in games against UTSA and Utah State.

With much of the season still ahead, coach Mike Elko and his team will look to address these inconsistencies and prove they can compete at a higher level, beginning with the crucial showdown at Notre Dame on Saturday night.

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