The Cost-Of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits is always a topic of great interest to retirees, as it provides much-needed relief from rising costs. With inflation still persistent, many are wondering how much higher the 2026 COLA might be compared to the 2025 adjustment.
What Was the COLA in 2025?
In 2025, Social Security beneficiaries received a 2.5% COLA. This increase, while helpful, was not enough to fully offset rising prices. With inflation still a concern, many are hoping for a larger increase in 2026.
What’s the 2026 COLA Projected to Be?
The 2026 COLA is projected to be a bit higher than the previous year’s 2.5% adjustment. According to the latest data, projections suggest an increase in the range of 2.7% to 2.8%.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has updated its forecast to 2.7%, based on current inflation trends.
Mary Johnson, a policy analyst, believes 2.8% is possible if inflation remains steady, particularly based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which shows relevant readings for the third quarter.
How Much Will Beneficiaries See in 2026?
If the COLA is 2.7%, the average monthly Social Security benefit will increase by about $54, from $2,008 to $2,062.
If the COLA is 2.8%, the increase could be slightly more (around $54.70), but the difference between the two estimates is relatively small.
Risks to the COLA Gains
Despite the anticipated bump in COLA, retirees remain concerned about other rising costs that may offset any benefits they might gain:
Medicare Part B premiums are expected to rise, potentially eating up a large portion of the COLA increase, particularly for those with modest Social Security payments.
Other costs like healthcare, food, energy, and housing continue to climb, meaning that even a higher COLA might not provide much relief.
The Impact of September’s Inflation Data
The final COLA figure will depend on inflation data from July to September. Analysts are closely watching the September inflation reading, as any unexpected changes could impact the final adjustment.
For the COLA to hit 2.7%, there would need to be virtually no inflation growth in September. Conversely, if inflation spikes in September, the COLA could end up being lower.
In summary, most analysts expect the 2026 COLA to land somewhere between 2.7% and 2.8%, which would represent a modest increase of about $50-$55 per month for many retirees.
While any increase is welcome, rising costs in healthcare, food, and other essentials, along with the potential for higher Medicare premiums, mean that the net effect of the COLA increase could feel smaller than many hope.
