Every year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) adjusts benefits through a Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA). This helps ensure that Social Security, SSDI disability, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments keep up with inflation.
The calculation is tied to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), measured from July to September each year.
If inflation is flat or negative, benefits are not reduced—they simply stay the same.
How COLA Is Calculated
The SSA uses the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the year (July, August, and September). This figure is then compared with the same period from the prior year. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, becomes the next year’s COLA.
2026 COLA Forecast
The official announcement for the 2026 COLA will come in October 2025, once the September inflation report is finalized. Until then, independent analysts provide forecasts based on current inflation trends.
The 2025 COLA was set at 2.5%, helping more than 72.5 million Americans.
For 2026, analysts from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) expect an increase of about 2.7%.
Other groups, including AARP, suggest a range of 2.4% to 2.8%, depending on final inflation data.
This adjustment will be applied automatically to all beneficiaries beginning January 2026.
Is COLA Enough for Seniors?
There’s an ongoing debate about whether the CPI-W accurately reflects the real cost of living for seniors. Retirees often spend more on healthcare and housing, which usually rise faster than other costs.
Some advocacy groups argue for switching to the CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for the Elderly), which better measures senior expenses. However, no change is expected for 2026.
How Much Could Benefits Rise in 2026?
If the 2.7% estimate holds, here’s what beneficiaries might expect:
| Benefit Type | Current Avg. Benefit | Estimated Increase | New Monthly Benefit | Annual Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retired Worker | $2,006 | +$54 | $2,060 | $648 |
| Disabled Worker (SSDI) | $1,537 | +$41 | $1,578 | $492 |
| Survivor – Elderly Widow/Widower | $1,850 | +$50 | $1,900 | $600 |
| Survivor – Parent w/ Children | $1,200 | +$32 | $1,232 | $384 |
| SSI – Individual | $967 | +$26 | $993 | $312 |
| SSI – Couple | $1,450 | +$39 | $1,489 | $468 |
| Essential Person | $484 | +$13 | $497 | $156 |
These are estimates, not final figures. The official adjustment will depend on September’s inflation numbers.
Social Security’s 2026 COLA is expected to be around 2.7%, slightly higher than 2025’s increase but below the larger adjustment seen in 2024. While this boost will help offset rising costs, many retirees feel it still falls short of covering essential expenses like healthcare and housing.
With millions depending on these payments, the October announcement from SSA will be closely watched. For now, beneficiaries can plan for modest increases beginning in January 2026.
