Social Security retirees typically see their benefits increase each year to keep pace with inflation. This is due to cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) that help maintain purchasing power as prices rise.
Without these adjustments, retirees would quickly see their buying power erode, relying more heavily on other retirement income strategies to make ends meet.
Later this year, an official announcement will confirm the 2026 COLA. However, the Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a senior advocacy organization, has already released projections. According to their latest analysis, the 2026 COLA will be slightly higher than initially forecasted.
Projected 2026 COLA Increase
As of August 12, 2025, the TSCL projects a 2.7% increase in Social Security benefits for 2026. This is higher than earlier predictions:
2.5% in May 2025
2.6% in June 2025
The revised projection for 2.7% was based on new CPI-W data showing that prices are rising faster than expected. The CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) is the key inflation metric used to determine COLA adjustments for retirees.
Why the Projections Changed
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks the CPI-W, which measures price increases in goods and services over time. The Social Security Administration reviews CPI-W data from the third quarter of each year to determine the COLA.
Here’s how inflation has been trending so far in 2025:
May: 2.2% year-over-year increase
June: 2.6% increase
July: 2.5% increase
With inflation continuing to rise, TSCL adjusted its COLA projection upwards. If this holds, the 2.7% increase will be slightly larger than the 2.5% adjustment retirees received in 2024.
What to Expect in October
Retirees will find out the exact COLA amount when the September CPI-W data is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This data, however, is usually a few weeks behind, with October being the crucial month for the official announcement.
While it’s expected that retirees will see a slightly higher raise than last year, it’s essential to keep realistic expectations. COLA raises are designed to help seniors maintain their purchasing power, but they don’t provide a real increase in income.
With inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, seniors may still need to budget carefully, especially if they rely on fixed incomes or conservative investments.
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