If you claim Social Security benefits today, you can expect those checks to keep coming for 15 to 20 years on average—and even longer if you have a family history of longevity. Over a lifetime, that can add up to six figures in benefits for most retirees.
But unlike in the past, where estimating lifetime benefits was as simple as multiplying monthly checks by the number of years you’ll collect, today’s uncertainty makes planning much harder.
That’s because while Social Security isn’t going away, it’s facing serious financial challenges that could reshape the program in the next decade.
Why Social Security Is Under Pressure
The program just celebrated its 90th birthday, but it’s running on borrowed time. According to the 2025 Trustees Report, the combined Social Security trust funds will be depleted by 2034. Once that happens, payroll taxes and benefit taxes will only be enough to pay about 80% of scheduled benefits.
A separate report from the Office of the Chief Actuary found that recent tax cuts under President Trump’s law could accelerate depletion even further—from late 2034 to early 2034—though this wasn’t factored into the Trustees’ estimates.
If nothing changes, retirees could face across-the-board benefit cuts of roughly 20%.
A Look Back: The 1980s Fix
This isn’t the first time Social Security has been in trouble. In the 1980s, lawmakers stepped in with reforms such as:
Raising the full retirement age (FRA), which effectively reduced benefits for younger workers.
Taxing Social Security benefits for some seniors.
These changes bought the program more time. Today, a similar intervention is expected—but Congress has yet to agree on a fix.
What Social Security Might Look Like at 100
When Social Security turns 100 in 2035, it will almost certainly still exist. The question is: what form will it take? Lawmakers have three main options:
- Raise taxes on workers and/or retirees.
- Cut benefits for current and/or future beneficiaries.
- Do both, sharing the financial burden across groups.
Any solution will leave either seniors with smaller checks or workers with less take-home pay. Exactly how painful the changes will be depends on when Congress acts and what reforms are chosen.
How to Plan for the Future
Even though Social Security won’t disappear, the possibility of cuts means you shouldn’t rely on it as your only retirement income. To prepare:
Plan conservatively by expecting to receive about 80% of your scheduled benefits.
Save aggressively while working. For example, saving $300 a month for 40 years, with an 8% annual return, could leave you with nearly $933,000.
Consider delaying retirement to boost your savings and lower your long-term costs.
Adjust your budget once Congress announces a final fix to see how the changes affect you.
Social Security will almost certainly survive to its 100th birthday—but not without changes. Whether those changes come as higher taxes, smaller benefits, or both, today’s workers and retirees should plan ahead.
By building up your personal savings and preparing for possible cuts, you can reduce the stress of uncertainty and protect your financial stability in retirement.
