For millions of retirees, Social Security is more than a monthly check — it’s a lifeline. Surveys from Gallup show that 86% of retirees rely on Social Security as either a “major” or “minor” source of income. Put simply, without it, most would struggle to pay their bills.
But behind the steady flow of monthly deposits, Social Security’s financial foundation is weakening. While the program isn’t going bankrupt or disappearing, serious changes are looming if lawmakers don’t act soon.
Social Security Cuts Could Arrive in 8 Years
Since 1940, the Social Security Board of Trustees has released an annual report tracking the program’s income, expenses, and long-term outlook. For decades, the report has warned of a growing funding shortfall — and as of the 2025 Trustees Report, that gap has ballooned to $25.1 trillion over 75 years.
The biggest immediate concern: the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund, which holds the program’s reserves, is projected to be depleted by 2033. If that happens, Social Security could only pay out what it collects in real time from payroll taxes. That means benefit cuts of up to 23% for retirees and survivors.
It’s important to note that Social Security will not “run out of money.” As long as Americans work and pay payroll taxes, funds will continue flowing. The issue is that without reserves, the system can’t sustain current payout levels.
Myths vs. Reality
A number of myths circulate about why Social Security is in trouble. Here’s what’s true:
Lawmakers have not stolen Social Security’s money. Every cent is accounted for in government bonds.
Undocumented migrants are not draining Social Security. In fact, they contribute billions in payroll taxes but are ineligible for benefits.
So what are the real reasons for the shortfall?
The Real Reasons Social Security Is Struggling
Several long-term demographic and economic trends are straining the system:
Baby boom retirements: More people are leaving the workforce than entering it.
Longer life expectancy: Social Security was never designed to pay benefits for 20+ years of retirement.
Falling birth rates: Fewer workers in future generations means less payroll tax revenue.
Rising income inequality: The payroll tax only applies up to $176,100 (2025), leaving much high income untaxed.
Reduced legal migration: Fewer young workers entering the labor force reduces long-term contributions.
Low interest rates: For years, the Fed’s near-zero rates meant the trust fund earned minimal interest income.
Congressional inaction: Lawmakers have avoided tough choices, allowing the problem to grow larger.
What This Means for Retirees
If no reforms are passed, retirees could face across-the-board cuts by 2033. For someone receiving $2,000 a month today, that would mean about $1,540 instead. While not the end of Social Security, it would force millions to adjust their budgets dramatically.
Social Security remains a vital safety net, but its long-term stability is under threat. The Trustees Report makes it clear: without reform, benefit cuts are coming within the decade. Fixing the problem will require difficult decisions around taxes, benefits, or both.
For now, workers should focus on saving independently for retirement so they aren’t solely reliant on Social Security. The sooner lawmakers act, the less painful the solutions will be — but every year of delay makes the fix harder.
