Donald Trump’s recent claims about the existence of 12.4 million Social Security recipients supposedly over the age of 120, and 135,000 individuals allegedly older than 160, have sparked a significant amount of debate.
Sitting in his characteristic chair in the Oval Office, the former president dubbed these claims as part of a “massive fraud” draining the Social Security system. According to Trump, these “phantom beneficiaries” represent taxpayer dollars being wasted on individuals who are, in his view, either deceased or ineligible for benefits.
The Basis of Trump’s Claims
Trump’s assertions are rooted in records found in the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) Numident database, which houses the personal data of all individuals who have been assigned Social Security numbers.
The problem, however, lies in the database’s reliance on outdated technology—specifically the COBOL-based system used by the SSA, which is over 60 years old.
The key issue is that when birthdates are missing or incomplete, the system defaults to January 1, 1800, creating false records of people supposedly over 120 or 160 years old. While these numbers do exist in the database, they are the result of technical glitches, not fraudulent activity.
A Closer Look at the Facts
Several reports and expert opinions contradict Trump’s portrayal of a vast, systemic fraud:
SSA Inspector General Report (July 2024): According to this report, improper payments made by the SSA between 2015 and 2022 totaled just 0.84% of the $8.6 trillion in benefits distributed during that time. Of those errors, over 95% involved living recipients receiving incorrect amounts, not payments to deceased individuals.
SSA’s Automatic Payment Halts: Since 2015, the SSA has implemented an automatic halt on payments to anyone surpassing 115 years old, reducing the likelihood of payments being made to those in the 120+ age range Trump refers to.
The 2023 SSA Review: An internal SSA review confirmed that 18.9 million deceased individuals were listed in the records of people born before 1920. However, these individuals do not receive active benefits, further undermining the fraud narrative.
Independent Expert Opinions: Economists such as Chuck Blahous from the Mercatus Center emphasize that Social Security’s improper payment rate is among the lowest of any federal program. Blahous notes that the error rate is far smaller than in programs like Medicare and Medicaid.
The Real Issue: Social Security’s Looming Funding Crisis
While the technical glitches in the SSA’s database may not be evidence of widespread fraud, there is a much more pressing issue facing Social Security: the program’s long-term funding shortfall. The system is projected to face a deficit by 2035 unless significant reforms are enacted.
Why Is Social Security Facing Financial Trouble?
Several demographic and economic factors are contributing to Social Security’s financial challenges:
Aging Population: The U.S. population is aging rapidly, with the baby boomer generation retiring and fewer younger workers entering the workforce. This demographic shift creates a disparity between the number of beneficiaries and contributors.
Wage Inequality and Stagnation: As wages have stagnated for middle-income workers and more earnings are concentrated above the taxable maximum ($168,600 in 2024), the tax revenue that funds Social Security has not kept pace with growing benefit costs.
Declining Reserves: The OASI trust fund, which holds Social Security reserves, is draining due to deficits. The $2.8 trillion buffer is shrinking, and once it is depleted, Social Security will rely solely on incoming payroll taxes, which are projected to cover only 75-80% of benefits.
A Legal and Mathematical Imperative for Reform
Unlike other federal programs, Social Security cannot borrow to cover shortfalls. Current law prohibits deficit spending. If Congress does not intervene to reform the system, beneficiaries will face automatic benefit cuts of 20-25% starting in 2035, as the trust fund depletes.
Trump’s accusations of “massive fraud” within the Social Security system are not supported by evidence. The problems he cites—such as records of individuals beyond 120 or even 160 years old—are the result of technical glitches in an outdated database.
The actual concern for Social Security is the impending funding crisis, fueled by demographic trends and economic factors. Without significant reforms, the program will face serious challenges in the near future, and all beneficiaries will be impacted by reduced benefits.
